TRUMP’S LOGIC — 3
I do not think that Trump is a fool, duped by the Jews and pro-Zionist propaganda. On the issue of the Middle East Trump is guided by the interests of the US, and not by the interests of the State of Israel.
Trump and his advisers took into consideration Obama’s failure in Israel-Palestine and many other issues. What, specifically, did Obama in this Middle East complex tangle? He supported, together with Europe, the Palestinian war against Israel, and earned points, getting favor from Muslim and European anti-Semites. As a result of Obama+Europe policy, Middle East peace process was at a standstill, and another result could not be expected. When the whole world, including the United States, supports a strong and aggressive Muslim side of the conflict, moreover Islam&anti-Semitic coalition, and puts pressure on Israel, the victim of this anti-Semitic aggression, there are null chances for peace.
On the other hand, in such a situation the Palestinians maintain the hope, that with the help of external forces they can destroy Israel. The Palestinians behave in full accordance with a general antisemitic line, they vote for Hamas, nobody tweets about Oslo agreements and peace. Abu Mazen is doing everything to ensure that Israel’s occupation of the West Bank won’t quit. And at the same time pretends that he stands against the Israeli occupation of Palestine and he is herald of independence. He simply cannot behave otherwise, and he lies down in his political bunker. Obama and Europe have buried the peace in the Middle East.
Obama’s Middle East policy has damaged the interests of the US. The United States are interested in the real reconciliation between Israel and the ‘moderate’ Arab states, and moreover, in the creation of the coalition of states and forces, opposed to both Islamists and Iran. Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians is a bone in the throat of America, the main obstacle to its plans in the highly important Middle East strategic area. Just the Palestinians do not allow Arab nationalists and «moderates» to create a coalition with Israel.
Being a practical man, Trump has come to the conclusion, that in order to achieve the desired peace in the Middle East, he must support Israel demonstratively, to knock off the heads of the Palestinians and all other Antisemites the hope for the destruction of Israel. Under this condition only, the progress of the peace can begin. And this is what Trump is doing now.
All this does not mean that Trump has no claims against Israel. For example, he has voiced his dissatisfaction with the housing for the Jews in Judea and Samaria. In general, Israel’s interests coincide with Trump’s policy objectives. In detail, however, there may be difference of opinion, dangerous for Israel. For example, Israel’s refusal to recognize already existing State of Palestine plays on the hands of Antisemitic propaganda. Netanyahu (or any other leader of Israel if Netanyahu will not stay in power) is obliged to push his own settlement plan and to convince Trump that the plan is more practical than other alternatives.
The first and indispensable condition of settlement should be continued Israeli military control over Palestine, until Palestinian supporters of peace will receive a mandate from the majority of Palestine voters. The Palestinian people have to prove their commitment to peace with Israel. Until there is no such evidence, the guarantor of peace, or at least of non-fighting, can only be the Israeli army. Abu Mazen, after imitating resistance, can agree to this condition, otherwise Hamas will throw him out immediately after Israel’s withdrawal from the «territories». Gaza experience is unequivocal. If Trump is really a practical man, he has to agree with such a condition.
The second prerequisite should be a cessation of Palestinian antisemitic brainwashing, both in the domestic front and outside Palestine. Today’s school curricula should be adjusted to exactly the opposite. Instead of the narrative of revenge and destruction of Israel, the Palestinian children should be told that the Jews and Palestinians have equal right to this land , and that Palestinians and Jews equally need the peace.
Muslims should be explained, that Allah once granted this land to the Jews, and now, by all indications, has decided to split it between the Jews and Muslims. By waging war against Israel, the Muslims and Palestinians oppose the will of Allah, therefore they were punished by the Nakba, Nachsa , «Arab spring» and internal Islamic wars.
Finally, the Palestinian nationalists may recall, that some part of the Palestinians are direct descendants of the Jews and of Samaritans, and sit on this land for thousands of years.
«Pallywood» must be eliminated or change direction by 180 degrees. While the Palestinian people are taught that Israel is here illegally, peace and security cannot exist.
In the matters of military control and peace education there should be no concessions, since such «concessions» contradict the goal, that is the peace. In the remaining issues we must seek a mutually acceptable compromise.
It should be remembered, that excessive unilateral concessions from Israel, yet more pressure on Israel to «squeeze» such concessions, can re-awaken excessive appetite of the Islamists and Palestinians. Therefore there is necessity to refrain from unbalanced concessions. In the past, Israel’s notorious «gestures» like release of terrorists or restrain from construction in Judea and Samaria, much harmed the peace process.
The UNGA resolution from November 2017 strictly contradicts the goal of the peace in the Middle East. Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital is compatible with his general line of peace. Muslims, including Palestinian Muslims, must learn to recognize Israel and its legal rights, including the right to Jerusalem. Otherwise the peace is impossible.
Regarding Jerusalem, Israeli government can offer full implementation of the UN resolution of 1947 («Partition Plan»), namely to hold a referendum allowing all inhabitants of the city of Jerusalem to express their will (to include the city to Israel or to Palestine), and to carry out the will of the majority.
In another hand, Israel is obliged to reckon with Jerusalem’s importance to the two main world religions, Christianity and Islam. I can suggest the idea of extra-political, religious control over the holy places in Jerusalem, Hebron and Bethlehem. Jerusalem «Holy Basin» should be separated from the municipality of Jerusalem, the area may be subordinated to the representatives of the denominations. The Council of denominations may consist of two representatives of the Muslims (Sunnis and Shiites), two representatives of the Christians (Catholic and Orthodox) and two representatives of Judaism (an Israeli and a Jewish Diaspora).
To begin, I would suggest the representative of Palestine as Sunni, and Shiite from Iran (if the Iranian ayatollahs refuse, we can assign an alternative candidate). As a Christian representatives, I would suggest the Vatican representative and the representative of the Moscow Patriarchate. If some of the proposed candidates do not want to take this role, it is possible to find an alternative. The idea is, that the Holy Places of Israel and Palestine, and first of all the Jerusalem «holy basin», should be directed by the representatives of religions, not by politicians. Sovereignty and responsibility for the security of the Jerusalem «holy basin» should be of Israel, while Hebron and Bethlehem respectively of Palestine.
I believe, that before the negotiations start, Israel has to recognize Palestine as an independent state. The principle of equality of the parties must be fundamental, but it does mean, in particular, that the Palestinian demands that violate the equal rights of the Jews, should be swept away from the beginning, as shown below.
First, there can be no return of the descendants of Palestinian refugees to Israel. And even those real Palestinian refugees, who are still alive, should not have the right to return, since their place in Israel was taken by the Jewish refugees from Arab lands. Jews were evicted by force from their homes by Muslims, they did not run on their own, contrary to most of the Palestinian refugees. Palestinian demand of return violates the principle of equality of the Jews. Moreover, the assistance which the UN provides to Palestinian refugees and their descendants, should be given also to the Jewish refugees and their descendants, in accordance with the principle of equal rights and the UN Charter. It is not a question of money, it is a question of the principle of equality.
Secondly, there can be no such idea like the transfer of Jews living in Judea and Samaria, as well as the transfer of Arabs, living in Israel. The Jews who settled in the West Bank on their own, have not violated any laws. The Jewish “settling” has strong historic, moral and judicial basis. The Jewish «settlers» should have the same human rights as the Palestinians. Palestinian demand to evict the Jews contradicts the Charter of Human Rights and the UN Statute. Israeli concession on this issue once again increases aggressiveness of the Muslims and Palestinians, and the influence of Hamas. If Trump seeks peace, he must be a determined opponent of such a transfer.
If the Palestinians claim the area «C» of the West Bank, they are obliged to grant the Palestinian citizenship to the Jews living in this area, to ensure their safety and equality. Until now, the Palestinians refused any such obligation, and it is unlikely they will be able to meet such condition in the near future. As long as there is no real and comprehensive peace between Israel and Palestine, the area «C», which is home to the Jews («settlers»), should remain under Israeli control, in full accordance with the Oslo Accords.
As an alternative option there’s possible referendum asking all inhabitants of the “C” zone to include it to Israel or Palestine. If Israel’s supporters prevail, than all inhabitants of this territory, Jews and Arabs, should became Israel’s citizens, or retain both Palestinian and Israeli citizenship.
If, however, the situation will change in the future, and the idea of peace with Israel will receive the support of the majority of Palestinians, then the question of the occupation of Palestine and sovereignty over the «C» area could be discussed again on the basis of mutual trust and mutual concessions. Attempts to «squeeze» unilateral concessions on the part of the Jews harm the cause of peace, and this fact should be explained to entire World. If somebody wants the real peace, he should support Israel, not islamistic aggression under pretext of Palestine.
Another issue, which cannot be given up under pressure, is military control over the Jordan Valley. Even in conditions of the perfect peace between Israel and Palestine, such control may be needed for an indefinitely long time. Jordan Valley is the security border for Israel and Palestine, and it must be protected, since there is a threat from the outside.
If Trump understands that the «intransigence» of Israel is intended to create the conditions for real peace and security for Israel and the entire Middle East, and this is consistent with his goals as the US President, then we can rely on his support.
Israel must strive not to «final», but to the Interim Agreement, for two reasons:
1 The conditions for the real peace are not yet ripe. They are to be created, «build», in a more favorable situation than that existing today. Such favorable situation must be created by a temporary agreement. You cannot pre-install the date of the «final» peace. The transition from one stage to the next will follow only when are fulfilled the goals and conditions of the previous stage. Anybody who demands immediate and complete solution of the conflict, tends not to peace but to the war.
- According to Sharia law and Islamic tradition, Muslims are only allowed temporary agreements with the «infidels.» If Muslims sign a permanent agreement with the «infidels», it is a sign that they are going to break the peace when the conditions turn more convenient. This is one of the manifestations of «takiya» principle, according to which Muslims have the right to mislead and lie to «infidels», if the circumstances force to do so. From religious point of view, Interim Agreement is “kosher” even for Hamas, the party that has the support of the Palestinian majority. Such option should be also «on the table».
On the other hand, this means that any agreement should get real guarantees, for the occasion that the Palestinians violate their commitments. But the only real guarantee, as we have repeatedly convinced in the past, can only be the power of Israel’s Defense Forces, and a permanent military presence of Israeli forces in Palestine. We must explain this truth to entire World. In the conflict with anti-Semites, Israel is a weak side. Therefore, Israel needs guarantee of security, and such a guarantee is the permanent occupation of Palestine.