Before the latest Russian aggression against Ukraine, it was believed that Israel could balance between the West and Russia. That such a policy will keep Russia from direct aggression against Israel and give us the opportunity to get rid of one-sided dependence on the West.
The need to resist the pressure of the West really existed. The US and Europe have betrayed and sold out the Jewish state for decades. The most striking example was the «Six-Day War» in 1967, when Putin’s predecessor on the Russian throne, L.I. Brezhnev, tried to destroy Israel in the same way that Putin is now trying to destroy Ukraine. Then the West refused to fulfill its obligations and surrendered Israel. The destruction of Israel in 1967 did not take place despite the efforts of the USSR and the West.
In 1973, the United States helped Israel survive by organizing an air bridge, through which a flow of equipment and ammunition went to Israel. A similar «bridge» was organized by the USSR to Egypt and Syria, and I personally witness this. I lived then right next to the strategic airfield in Ivano-Frankivsk, where heavy transport aircraft landed and refueled every few minutes, around the clock. We simply could not sleep because of the roar of the planes.
It is clear why the Russians are bombing and destroying this airfield today.
After the collapse of the USSR, the West headed for an alliance with the enemies of Israel, the Islamists. To justify another betrayal of Israel, the Palestinians were involved, a cult of «the Palestinian victims of the Israeli aggressors» was staged. Under such conditions, the Israeli government justifiably tried to improve relations with Russia and China.
But our illusions crumbled under the blow of Putin’s brutal aggression. However, the signs of the future appeared several years ago, when Russia sent troops to Syria and helped endure the pro-Iranian Assad regime. Contrary to the agreement with Israel, Russia transferred S-300 air defense systems to Syria and Iran.
To justify this move, the Russians staged an IL-18 provocation and blamed Israel for the deaths of 15 Russian servicemen. Then I analyzed the timing of the IL-18 flight and showed that the plane was deliberately sent under attack by Syrian missiles. Then I had doubts about who was the initiator of this provocation. I considered the candidacies of Assad and Shoigu. Now It is obvious that Putin himself was the initiator. He sent his soldiers to their deaths just to create a pretext for an anti-Israeli action.
Putin is trying to restore the anti-Israeli front of the Arabs, and first of all to involve not only Syria but also Egypt in the war against Israel. Russia supplies the Egyptians with advanced weapons. It is known that the entire Egyptian war machine is aimed at Israel. Tunnels have been dug under the Suez Canal for the rapid deployment of troops to the Israeli border.
Danger threatens us not only from the north but also from the south. Pieces of paper signed 40 years ago will not protect us. We must prepare for war on all fronts.
The Palestinians have refused to reach an agreement with Israel even after Trump ended. Hamas insists on the destruction of Israel and is not ready to relax the «blockade» of Gaza, which was proposed by the naive Yair Lapid. In conversations with ordinary Palestinians, I hear their opinion, or rather the hope that powerful Russia will destroy Israel.
Whether the prepared machine of aggression against Israel will be launched depends on Putin. While he is at war with Ukraine, the war in the Middle East is postponed. But what will he do when, at the cost of enormous efforts, he occupies Ukraine? Will he immediately rush to seize Europe?
The Russian military during the Soviet era believed they could take over Europe and reach the Atlantic Ocean in one week. It is likely that after the Ukrainian experience they will change their minds. Moreover, the Europeans finally changed their minds and abandoned pacifism.
From Kazakhstan, which was already captured, the Russians had to leave under pressure from China. It turns out that their primary goal will be the Middle East. Here, not Russian soldiers will shed blood, but Putin’s Arab allies, as was the case in Syria. The prize is control of the world’s oil reserves, on which both Europe and China depend. Tempting…
It’s time for Israel to stop playing the old geopolitical game. Putin’s promises cannot be trusted. Today, Ukraine is protecting Israel from Putin’s aggression. The longer the Ukrainians hold out, the more exhausted Russia will be. I hope that Western sanctions will also do their job. The Russians will not have the resources to ensure their takeover of the Middle East. We should not bet on a dead horse named Putin.