As expected, the victory of Putin and Assad in Syria brings Israel closer to the war on the northern front. The story of the downed Russian reconnaissance aircraft is a typical deliberate pre-war provocation well known in history.
The Syrians knew very well whose plane they shot down. I do not believe that the Syrians could have confused the IL-20 intelligence aircraft with an Israeli fighter. The IL-20 is tenfold bigger than any fighter. Yes, and the speed and maneuverability of such an aircraft is much lower than that of fighters. They are really hard to confuse. Could the Syrians not know that the Russian reconnaissance aircraft was constantly on duty in their skies?
By the way, this intelligence aircraft surely tracked Israeli fighters and, possibly, helped the Syrians to fire at Israelis. Just 7 minutes before interception, IL-20 changed flight direction from west to north, toward the battlefield. One minute before that change of direction, Israelis warned Russian force of planned strike. So, the Russian commander had 8 minutes to prevent his plane from being involved in the battle. Instead, the IL-20 took position 5 km over Israeli F-16 fighters, so he could oversee the fighters and direct Syrian S-200 anti-aircraft complex.
This story is reminiscent of the year 1967, when at the height of the six-day war, the Israelis sank the American intelligence ship Liberty. The Americans pushed the ship to the shores of Sinai after the tank battle, which decided the outcome of the war. The Israelis were afraid that the Americans would help the Egyptian commanders regain lost control over their troops, and they sank the ship of the unreliable ally who was playing a double game. However, the main reason was to hide the debacle of Egyptian army. The day, when the Egyptian catastrophe turned known, the superpowers, USSR and the USA stopped Israeli offensive by common ultimatum.
Here’s another example of successful Assads’ provocation. Back in 1982, Assad the Dad massacred the Palestinian «camps» Sabra and Shatila. Lebanese Christians, commanded by Assad’s agent Eli Hubeika, executed this massacre. The US military, who were present in Lebanon, did nothing to prevent the massacre. And who was accused of this war crime? Well, of course, the Jews. As a result, Israel was forced to withdraw the army from Lebanon, not having achieved its goals, as if we were defeated there. Prime Minister Menachem Begin never recovered from this disgrace, Ariel Sharon resigned from his post as secretary of defense, and Assads occupied Lebanon over the next decades. Well, the current Assad, like his dad, turned out to be a great master of provocations.
Assad needs war against Israel in order to pacify the defeated Islamists. The anti-Semitic war against Israel is the only common platform that can reconcile these sworn “friends” with Assad. So, Assad is directly interested in stopping Russia’s double game and causing standoff with Israel. He needs Putin’s decisive support in the planned war against Israel. Of course, Assad can always rely on the support of Iran and Hezbollah, but as the Syrian experience has shown, Iran is strong in anti-Semitism, but weak in the war. The Iranians could not decide the outcome of the civil war in Syria, while Putin did. In the war against Israel, Assad needs the support of Russia.
Assads have been in power for 50 years, despite the fact that most Syrians are their enemies. They were able to accomplish this task due to massive massacres and civil war, full of crimes. Russia should be wary of such dangerous allies. At any time they can stab in the back. For example, Assad (as Sadat in his time) may decide: the Moor (Russia) has done his job, and now he can leave. To cause this, it is enough to shoot down a Russian plane» by mistake». In order to preserve the bases in the Middle East, Putin chose to «believe» that the Israelis were guilty, not Assad.
Few months ago, the Iranian team has launched drones to Israel (exactly, to the Sea of Galilee region) from an airbase controlled by Russia military. Israeli fighter performed strike against Iranians and was downed by Syrian anti-aircraft complex S-200, supplied by Russia. The IL-20 incident, too, occurred since Israeli attack aimed at Iranian force placed in the vicinity of large Russian Hmeimim base. Iran and Assad make efforts to tangle Russia to fight against Israel. Russian military cooperate these efforts, neglecting Putin’s policies. That is what I’m explaining in this very article.
So, Assad deliberately shot down a Russian plane, and Russian defense minister made Israel guilty. Putin knows perfectly that this «incident» is a provocation of Assad, but he pretends that he believes his military, who have come up with a version, that “the Israelis have taken refuge” behind a Russian plane. According to the Israeli version, all Israeli fighters have already returned home when the Syrians shot down a Russian plane. And yet, the Russian military, whose plane was shot down by their «allies,» pushed the blame on Israel and awarded the cunning Assad with improved anti-aircraft systems. Russian defense minister, Shoigu, announced delivery of S-300 anti-aircraft complexes to Assad BEFORE Putin gave his «OK» for such a transaction.
Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoygu, seeks presidency, undermining Putin’s policy and Putin’s position. Putin-Erdogan political maneuver over Syria, causes Russia military to lose its role in Syria war and its influence in Russian internal politics. Shoigu, backed by the Russian military-industrial complex, together with Assad is interested to proceed the war up to decisive victory. The unsuccessful IL-20 «incident» may undermine Shoigu position, so he plays anti-Semitic card and accuses Israel.
Anti-Semitic war is good for Russian military. Like their Soviet predecessors, they are eager to fight against Israel. This is a bad sign, Russian anti-Semitic storm arose again. Russia may return to traditional USSR-styled Middle East aggression. 30 years ago Russian military-industrial complex crushed the USSR economy. Now, it may cause the WW III.