2. TRUMP’S LOGIC

2. Trump's Logic

It seems that this logic is cracked.

The first leader, who met with Trump in the Middle East, was Abu Mazen, not Netanyahu. The reason is obvious. The key to the Middle East peace process remains in the hands of Abu Mazen. He has undermined the previous Obama's attempt to reach an agreement, and the reason of this I have explained in a previous article , "The logic of Trump" . Abu Mazen does not want the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Palestine, at all. In fact, these forces hold the authority of Abu Mazen over the West Bank. If the Israel Defense Forces disappear from Palestine, he will immediately kicked off. This operation will make Hamas, or Barghouti may take over the Fatah, displacing Abu Mazen.

Therefore, Abu Mazen does not need any formal peace with Israel, nor "permanent" agreement. Abu Mazen's rivals in Palestine have blocked the way to the formal peace. Maximum, he can accept an interim agreement. Moreover, the interim agreement is consistent fully with the traditions of Islam, in theory it could even be acceptable to Hamas.

Now, Abu Mazen is trying to put Hamas to the leg, threatening it by the cessation of funding of Gaza. Previous similar attempt in 2014 ended with the Hamas provoking the war with Israel, the destruction and casualties in Gaza, and then HAMAS has obtained multi-billion infusion of money. In addition, Israel was trapped in international isolation, a UN investigation, and Hamas seized the Abu Mazen's role of the main fighter against the Jews. Accordingly, HAMAS received wide support from the Europeans and all other anti-Semites in the Global village.

So, Netanyahu needs to explain all this to Trump, if the last himself has not yet realized, that the path to a peace is blocked not by Israel. Concessions by Israel will not advance the cause of the alleged settlement. Moreover, the retreat of Trump from his pre-election promises on Jerusalem, on construction in Judea and Samaria, and Israel's freedom of action in the negotiation process, only undermine his personal credibility and authority of the United States in the Middle East. Consistent support for Israel by the US administration aims to convince the majority of the Palestinian people and all the anti-Semites, rather than Abu Mazen and Hamas, that their idea of ​​the destruction of Israel, and of the genocide of the Jews, is not feasible.

The realistic policy should promote small steps and interim agreements. This does not mean that progress is stalled, but just need to move slowly and not try to solve all the disputes with a single blow.

Israel's refusal to recognize Palestinian independence allows Abu Mazen to pose a "fighter for the independence" and confront his Palestinian rivals. This lack of recognition has also increased support and cash infusions to Palestine.

If Trump wants to "gesture" in favor of the Palestinians, then the gesture may be formal recognition of the independence of Palestine by Israel. Of course, without displacing the Israel Defense Forces, and without stopping construction for Jews.

If Trump wants to "gesture" towards the "moderate" Arabs, including Saudi Arabia, then the recognition of the independence of Palestine may be valuable concession. On the issue of Jerusalem the "gesture" may be the idea that main World religions would control the "holy basin", and a referendum on sovereignty over the city. See  article, "The logic of Trump" .

Progress towards an alliance between Israel and the "moderate" Arabs should continue in parallel with the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, but there's need to avoid as far as possible the "linkage", that is, depending on one another.

Trump learns quickly, and easily changes his position. Rather than enter into a confrontation with him, Netanyahu should help Trump in the learning of the process, and offer his own constructive solutions, which will meet the objectives of Trump, simultaneously remaining realistic. 

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